The used truck glut, which was expected to crest in 2002 and 2003, has abated for now, according to speakers at the annual convention of the Used Truck Association (UTA), which met Nov. 7-9 in Hot Springs, Ark.

New truck sales hit an all-time high in 1999, and, under normal conditions, fleets would have begun turning those trucks back in last year. But record sales in the late 1990s had already saturated the used truck market in 2000 and 2001. The feared flood of vehicles was headed off by the even more feared "Engines of October" – the new diesels required to meet stringent EPA emissions limits.

Fleets are holding onto older vehicles and buying late-model used trucks while waiting for the new engines to prove their reliability, speakers noted. That has reduced used truck inventories and also pushed up prices. A number of dealers said quality used trucks are harder to find.

The auction house members indicated prices are going up there, too, but said they had a steady supply of trucks. Nobody had a recent count nor even a solid estimate of how many used trucks may still be parked by the fence or warehoused against the day when used vehicle prices rise further or they're needed to run freight.

Meanwhile, new truck sales, which were strong through the first three-quarters of 2002, dropped like a broken driveshaft in September. Tom Kontos, an economist with the auction house, Adesa, said it may be another 18 months to two years before the excess used truck supply drops to normal levels. He said it appeared new Class 8 sales for 2002 would top out at about 150,000, somewhat better than 2001.

As fleets run current equipment longer or add used vehicles to their ranks, they will confront increasing maintenance needs – something many had planned to leave behind by trading in every three years. Speakers agreed that, if the new engines' performance is deemed satisfactory, fleets will start buying new trucks again rather than incur long-term higher maintenance costs on older ones.

(At press time, Cummins had reported strengthening orders for its EPA-certified engines. But most truck and engine builders have laid off workers or closed facilities for lack of demand.) The UTA membership includes not only independent dealers, but also larger dealers such as Arrow and SelecTrucks, as well as wholesalers and auctions.